January Market Commentary

The Trump Whirlwind and Tariffs

The market story of 2025 isn’t just about numbers, it’s about the whirlwind coming out of the White House. President Trump has only been back in office for three weeks, but the pace of executive orders, key appointments, policy shifts, shake-ups, speeches, interviews, and social media musings has been relentless. Trying to keep up with it is like drinking from a firehose. When you think there can’t be more, another headline drops. Markets are processing a flood of breaking news headlines and one of the biggest shockwaves. Tariffs.

On January 31st, Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on imports from China. These were slapped on top of existing tariffs, and the speed of implementation caught investors off guard. However, the plan was quickly revised, delaying tariffs on Canada and Mexico until March.

So, will these tariffs happen? Will they stick? Or are they just another bargaining chip? Trump cites the large trade deficits and tilted trade policies with most US trading partners. And he appears determined to wield economic clout to effect change.

Tariffs have the potential to push inflation higher. The most recent University of Michigan consumer survey shows inflation expectations rising, with respondents now predicting 4.3% inflation next year, up 1% from previous expectations. And while tariffs aim to protect domestic industries, the cost often gets passed on to businesses and consumers.

But the exact impact is hard to predict. Tariffs may raise costs, but a stronger U.S. dollar could offset some of that pain, making imports relatively cheaper. The big question is whether companies will absorb the higher costs or pass them along—and if they do, how much will consumers tolerate before pulling back on spending?

The Federal Reserve is waiting to see the economic impact of tariffs. If tariffs push inflation higher, the Fed may be forced to keep rates elevated longer than expected. That means the rate cuts investors anticipate may not materialize as soon as hoped.

On the other hand, if tariffs significantly slow economic growth, the Fed could step in with rate cuts to soften the blow. Markets expect two rate cuts in 2025, but confidence in that forecast is slipping. It all depends on whether tariffs create more inflation or an economic drag.

Before investors start making drastic moves based on tariff headlines, it’s important to remember that tariffs under Trump are as much about negotiation as they are about policy.

Trump has a history of using tariffs as leverage—threatening them, applying them, and then rolling them back if he gets the deal he wants. We’ve already seen this play out with Canada and Mexico. Just because tariffs are announced doesn’t mean they’re permanent.

This also means that markets will likely remain volatile as negotiations unfold. Investors trying to trade based on tariff policy might find themselves whiplashed by the constant back-and-forth.

So, with uncertainty swirling, what’s the best move for investors?

1. Stay Calm, Stay Diversified – Tariff drama can cause short-term volatility, but diversified portfolios are built for uncertainty.
2. Ignore the Noise – The best investment strategies aren’t built on reacting to daily headlines. If tariffs are rolled back (which they often are), you don’t want to have made knee-jerk moves you regret.
3. Focus on What You Can Control – Investors can’t control tariffs, interest rates, or trade policy. But they can control risk and asset allocation and stay disciplined through uncertainty.

Tariffs may dominate today’s headlines, but the long-term challenge for the U.S. economy is still historically high debt and deficits. If the administration can successfully grow the economy, find new revenue, and cut costs, that’s great—but history suggests it won’t be easy.

For now, the best approach is to stay patient, avoid reactionary moves, and maintain a long-term perspective. Markets will continue to move, and policies will continue to change. Investors who stay focused on fundamentals and the long term—rather than the daily drama—will come out ahead.

2024 Investment Account Tax Forms – What You Need to Know

Tax season is here; don’t worry—we’re here to help!

When Will Your Tax Forms Be Ready?

Tax forms for investment accounts are released at different times, depending on the type of account and investments. Some forms may be available as early as mid-January, but updates or corrections may cause delays in some cases. If you’re eager to file, a little patience may be needed.

Where to Find Your Tax Forms

Most of our clients receive their tax forms by mail via the U.S. Postal Service. However, your forms are also uploaded to your eMoney vault as soon as they’re available. Below, we’ve included instructions on how to access them in eMoney.

Additional Resources

We’ll also send a tax form delivery guide, which outlines when different tax forms will be issued and explains what each form means for your filing.

Need Help?

If you have questions or want to share your tax forms with your CPA securely, give us a call—we’re happy to help!

Your portfolio reports are available in your eMoney vault for easy access. We are reaching out to clients to schedule reviews. Please reach out if you are ready for a review or if you have something we can assist with. You can call us or schedule a review here.

How to Retrieve Your Tax Forms

1. Log into your eMoney account.
2. Select “Vault” at the top of the screen.
3. Navigate to the “Brokerage Account Documents” folder (it may appear empty at first, but your documents are there).
4. Open the “Tax Documents” folder.
5. You’ll see a separate folder for each of your accounts. Click on the folder for the account you’d like to view (e.g., Rollover IRA (IRRL)(*****1234)).
6. Select the 2024 tax year and download the forms you need.